Com'e' finita? - Part III: Gli Stati dicono...

Molti Stati hanno espresso le loro intenzioni rispetto agli obiettivi che intendono assumersi entro il 31 gennaio. Vediamo come apparirebbero le tabelle negli Appendix I e II dell’Accordo di Copenhagen con le dichiarazioni fatte.

APPENDIX I

Quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020

Annex I Parties ----- Emissions Reduction in 2020 ------- Base year
EU ------------------------------------- 20%-30%* --------------- 1990
Australia ------------------------------- 5%, 15-25%* ------------ 2000
Canada --------------------------------- 20% --------------------- 2006
Japan ---------------------------------- 8%**-25% --------------- 1990
Russia --------------------------------- 20-25%* ----------------- 1990
USA ----------------------------------- 17% ---------------------- 2005
Norway -------------------------------- 40% --------------------- 1990

*Conditional to an ambitious agreement.
**Equivalent to -15% below 2005 level.

APPENDIX II

Nationally appropriate mitigation actions of developing country Parties

Non-Annex I ----------------------Actions
Brazil --------------------- Cut 38-42% emissions by 2020; cut illegal deforestation by 80% by 2020.
China --------------------- Cut carbon intensity by 40-45% from 2005 levels by 2020.
India --------------------- 15% renewable energy target by 2020; cut carbon intensity by 20-25% by 2020
South Africa ---------------Cut 32% emissions on business as usual level by 2020; 42% by 2025
South Korea --------------- Cut 4% emissions below 2005 levels by 2020 (equivalent to -30% below business as usual scenario)
Mexico -------------------- Cut 20% emissions on business as usual level
Maldives ------------------ Become carbon neutral by 2020***
Costa Rica ----------------- Become carbon neutral by 2021***

***Carbon neutral countries: these countries are planning to cut their carbon emission of 100%, by reducing their fossil fuel emissions and increasing their carbon sinks (forests). This will result in a zero emissions scenario.
Bastera’ al mondo per scongiurare un aumento della temperature superiore ai 2 gradi centigradi? Secondo il Climate Action Tracker sviluppato da Ecofys questi propositi non sono sufficienti: implementando le attivita' proposte dagli Stati, la concentrazione delle emissioni di CO2 nell'atmosfera raggiungerebbei 650 ppm entro il 2100, a fronte degli attuali 390 ppm. A tali livelli di concentrazione, la temperatura crescerebbe di almeno 3 gradi, con un 25% delle possibilita’ che l’aumento ecceda i 4 gradi centigradi.

Risulta chiara, quindi, la necessita' di impegni piu' ambiziosi.

Veronica Caciagli

Climate Change Officer

British Consulate General Milan